A site forecast that
prints its own misses.
Give it a location, a slot and table count, and an opening year. It returns an annual revenue band for that site, built on a gravity model that measures drive times on real roads across 139,000 census block groups.
The band comes from how 18 real forecasts of this kind actually landed, not from the model's confidence in itself. The calibration record, the misses we measured and left in, and the Illinois blind spot are all in the specification.
gravity — as specified
Calibrated states17property-grain regulator actuals stand behind the fit or the transfer
Position-method states6California, Nevada, Arizona, Oregon, Colorado, Mississippi — served on labelled competitor supply, no in-state revenue exists. Never added to the number above
CaliforniaPosition-methodtribal floors estimated from device counts and operator statements, not from reported revenue
The other fiveRegulator device countsposition-method too — the counts are a regulator census, but none of the five publishes revenue by property; Nevada is locals-only, Strip pins refused
StructureTwo-stage Huff-class
Block groups~139,000
Calibration panel~1,300 property-monthsacross 19 properties
OutputP10 / P50 / P90
Reference class18 pairsreal forecast-vs-actual
Improvement rounds7 run · 7 rejected